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Forecast Drivers

Dive into AI Explainability and understand the key drivers influencing predictions

What are forecast drivers?
Forecast drivers refer to the features or input variables that the model uses to produce relative performance predictions.   


How can we use the Forecast Drivers for AI Explainability?
In many business applications, the explainability of a Machine Learning model is just as essential as its performance.

Therefore, we built our platform to natively support state-of-the-art techniques for AI explainability and to quantify the impact of each forecast driver on each prediction.

 

FORECAST DRIVERS

In fact, model’s explanations can be used to obtain insight into what led the model to produce a certain prediction. Among other things, the standard set of features contains:

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Mathematical calculations based on a security or market's past price, volume, or open interest.

  
FUNDAMENTALS

 information related to the company's financial health and performance.

  
Volatility and options derived features

 Volatility refers to the degree of variation in a security's price over time. We also extract features from option contracts traded on the underlying assets that belong to the investment universe we cover with our predictions.
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MOMENTUM The rate at which a security's price changes. It's often measured over specific periods, and momentum strategies may look for securities that are moving significantly in one direction.  
MARKET DISPERSION Measures the difference between the best and worst-performing assets in a particular market or sector. High dispersion indicates a greater difference between top and bottom performers, which can be a sign of market uncertainty.  
SENTIMENT Analysis of news articles, financial reports, or social media to determine the overall sentiment or mood of investors regarding a particular security or market.  
Sector Performance How well the particular market sector of the asset (e.g., technology, finance, health care) is performing compared to others.  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Broader economic data that can influence financial markets, such as Interest Rates, Inflation Rates, Unemployment Rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).